8th January 2025 > > Canada & Czechoslovakia.

tl;dr

Canada looks set to travel the path of liberty and freedom. Czechoslovakia is looking at a BTC strategic reserve fund.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

It’s amazing how quickly the airwaves get filled by naysayers whenever there is a small correction. Here’s a fairly typical take on yesterday’s move:

Followed by this comment:

“Another day, another Bitcoin crash. The line between the two is blurring more each day.”

I know the CCC is heavily biased in favour of cryptos, and highly critical of those (especially politicians and technocrats) who try to stand in the way of the crypto revolution, but in our defence, we do have the moral advantage of being right.

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The trigger for yesterday’s move was strong economic data out of the US, which had an outsized impact on cryptos over and above other risk assets, though please bear in mind that 6% moves are really not uncommon, par for the course one might say. The leveraged children got hurt in size once again, with over $600mm of long positions being liquidated adding to the downside pressure.

Weak-handed speculators will be panicking at headlines such as the one above, which is fine. They shouldn’t be involved in the first place. A large cohort of long-term investors is being attracted by the spot BTC EFFs, and ever more crypto-friendly regulatory regimes being developed in the EU and soon in the US. If short-term trading is your thing, I gently suggest cryptos are not.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Canada

Libertarians worldwide were filled with joy and happiness when Justin Blackface Trudeau resigned from his position as Prime Minister of Canada on Monday. The dire state of the ruling party’s polling with a general election in the offing left him with no other choice.

Trudeau was adamantly anti-crypto. He illegally banned truck drivers from accessing their own bank accounts in response to their lawful protests against his authoritarianism, then followed it up with a ban on the truckers receiving donations in cryptos, which was truly offensive. He was the driving force behind a proposed law that would force house arrest on citizens whom the state believed might go on to commit crimes if allowed outside their own homes. Not even Putin has dared to try to impose such a measure upon his own long-suffering serfs. No-one can be upset at his departure.

The opposition leader, and frontrunner to become the next Prime Minister of Canada, is Pierre Poilievre. Polymarket has Pierre at 89% to become PM, so what does he have to say about cryptos?

You are going to be pleasantly surprised.

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In March 2022, Pierre came out in support of making BTC legal tender, with this justification:

“People should have the freedom to choose other money. If the government is going to abuse our cash, we should have the freedom to use other, higher quality cash.”

Love that. “… higher quality cash”. Ha!

He was also filmed buying a chicken shawarma paying in BTC using layer two network Lightning. The spiciness of his preferred sauce on that day has not been saved for posterity.

Back in 2022, he said he would prevent the central bank of Canada pursuing its own CBDC. He repeated this pledge in April 2024, so I am quietly confident he hasn’t had a change of heart. I would be mightily pleased to add Canada to the current list of countries tirelessly fighting against the iniquities of CBDCs, namely the US, Switzerland, and Slovenia.

The election must be called before October 20th. Let’s hope it comes sooner than that.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – And now Czechoslovakia

The Czech government is mulling whether to join the fast-growing queue of countries looking to build a BTC strategic reserve, initially with a small target in mind, according to the governor of the Czech National Bank, Aleš Michl.

I must admit I had not factored into my ridiculous price prediction of $1.2mm per BTC of any material ownership by sovereign states. El Salvador’s daily purchase of 1 BTC is nice, but it doesn’t really change the dial in any broad sense. However, as more and more countries talk about this prospect, and start to act on these aspirations, the more seriously others will consider doing the same. You cannot stop that old herd mentality from kicking in.

If the surprise narrative of 2025 is one of sovereign adoption of BTC – the US, Japan, China, Brazil, Switzerland, Poland, Bhutan, and others – now is a very good time to be fully invested.