9th January 2025 > > Perspective & Fidelity.

tl;dr

Perspective can be most instructive. Fidelity takes a look at what’s in the crypto store for 2025.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

The intervention by the Bank of England in the gilts market to prevent a meltdown is a timely reminder we are only one piece of bad economic news away from officially unleashing quantitative easing to allow politicians of all stripes to avoid facing the harsh reality of their policy choices. UK 10-year yields at 4.9% are 50% higher than Greece’s at 3.2%. The ECB continues to hoover up Greek debt in a blatant display of both market manipulation and state financing of Greek banks and industry. We will soon be doing the same and in size.

A techie tells me that the outlook for ETH is poor, because the "Guppy multiple moving average indicator is about to flip bearish”. Yeah, whatever. The outlook for ETH is much the same as all the other large market caps (give or take) – it all depends on the spot BTC ETF flows. On the assumption that institutional investors are only just starting to pivot into cryptos (undoubtedly my working assumption), those flows will only get stronger regardless of the daily fluctuations.

Curious Cryptos’ meme corner

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – A little bit of perspective please

January 2015 BTC crashed to $200 from $1,000 (-80%).

December 2018 BTC crashed to $3,200 from $19,000 (-83%).

July 2021 BTC crashed to $31,600 from $59,800 (-47%).

November 2022 BTC crashed to $15,800 from $67,500 (-77%).

January 2025 BTC crashed to $92,900 from $108,300 (-14%).

So, yes, we can go a lot lower for a while, but that does not change the overarching narrative. All those local top buyers, who panic sold at each of the local bottoms, just needed a bit more conviction, allied with a healthy dose of DCA.

…

One day BTC will crash to $250,000, and the naysayers will be out in force again.

And after that BTC will crash to $450,000, and they still won’t have given up calling for the end of the crypto “bubble”.

Just sayin’ is all.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Fidelity

Fidelity, with AUM of $5.5 TRILLION and AUA of $14.1 TRILLION, is one of the giants of the asset management industry.

Fidelity has long been a crypto supporter. Its enthusiasm shows no sign of waning.

Fidelity Digital Assets Research has recently published its 2025 Look Ahead piece, which is well worth a read:

https://fwc.widen.net/s/zbhjbmppgq/fda-2025-look-ahead-report-v6

The section entitled “The Possible Drivers of Mainstream Adoption and Diffusion in 2025” starts with my current favourite topic – “Nation-State and Government Adoption”. Contained within is the following interesting comment:

“Senator Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act of 2024 to the Senate in July of 2024. If the bill is enacted, we believe the political and financial game theory at play will force other nations to follow suit. However, if this strategy were to be adopted, it is likely that nation-states would begin accumulating in secret. This is because no nation has an incentive to announce these plans, as doing so could influence more buyers and drive up the price. While it remains to be seen if this strategy will be implemented in 2025, those who would potentially adopt it will be incentivized to do so covertly.”

I am not entirely convinced that this holds for liberal Western nations whose transparency requirements are somewhat greater than those countries run by autocrats, but nonetheless it is a timely warning. Those investors waiting for sovereigns to start buying before getting involved, may not know about it until it is far too late.

The conclusion is one that all readers of the CCC are only too acutely aware of:

“… we believe we may be entering the dawn of a new era for digital assets, one poised to span multiple years—if not decades … The pivotal question for investors now is not whether to participate, but how actively they will engage with this transformation.”